First and foremost, I extend my heartfelt greetings to all of you and express my gratitude for your participation. It is a great honor to once again be here at the opening of the 10th Istanbul Security Conference, held under the esteemed leadership of our distinguished president, and to deliver one of the opening speeches.
Reflecting on the speech I delivered last year, I believe it is essential to acknowledge certain anniversaries that coincide with this conference, which takes place in November. One of these is the 41st anniversary of the establishment of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, celebrated on November 15. Regarding the TRNC, of which we are proud, I would like to once again emphasize the necessity of taking concrete steps toward recognition or a different framework.
Another significant anniversary is the 107th year of the infamous Balfour Declaration, which forms the basis of the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict. It is crucial not to forget this declaration, which lies at the heart of the Palestinian issue. Similarly, the fall of the Berlin Wall, which symbolized the division between East and West, also took place in November. However, despite the passage of 65 years, it is unfortunate to see that humanity has learned nothing from history.
In 2024, for the first time in history, the world’s population surpassed 8 billion. Additionally, for the first time, India's population has exceeded that of China. Both countries currently have a population of 1.4 billion, but projections indicate that India will continue to grow exponentially, surpassing China by a significant margin. The question arises: Could India become the new China? When we analyze India’s large-scale vocational and technical education collaborations with Germany, it becomes evident that the United States is not merely positioning India as an alternative to China but is striving to elevate it to a much different status.
I would like to address the topics expressed by the Honorable President, particularly regarding techno-politics. Techno-politics has now started to transform into policy documents. The United States was the first to introduce this concept by adopting the Artificial Intelligence Bill of Rights. Subsequently, a series of serious laws regarding the use of artificial intelligence began to emerge, and ultimately, in March 2024, the European Union became the first in the world to pass the Artificial Intelligence Act. We are now experiencing a process in which the impact of technological advancements on security policies and other matters is clearly evident, and technology itself is increasingly being defined by laws.
Another concept is a new definition introduced to geopolitics. Geopolitics traditionally outlines the relationship between geography and politics, but now, due to technological advancements and artificial intelligence, a new debate has emerged: Is artificial intelligence a new form of geopolitics, or is it an AI-driven political revolution? I believe these two questions are profound enough to be the subject of academic research, and I wanted to share this with you.
Yes, I titled my presentation "The New Middle Ages." This is not actually a new concept. If you look far north, to Siberia, you can see the melting of ice and permafrost. What does this imply? In the near future, a new battleground may emerge regarding rare elements. Additionally, desertification and drought are increasing and spreading. We are also witnessing a rise in hurricanes and similar natural disasters. Many river basins, including the Nile, are experiencing a gradual decline. There is significant regression in agriculture and other industrial facilities in these areas. The list goes on—wildfires resulting from the melting glaciers in Siberia could not be extinguished by Russia for about a month, and methane gases released from beneath the thawing ground have been found to surpass the total methane emissions released into the atmosphere in one and a half to two years. I want to emphasize that this is the global process we are witnessing.
Looking at the global refugee map, consider Turkey's geographical position. According to new records from the United Nations, approximately 10.5 million people worldwide have left their home countries. About 3.5 million of these refugees are in the Middle East, a region that neighbors Turkey. This situation is becoming one of the most critical elements of future security issues. We are witnessing a massive increase in migration movements across Europe. In response, European border security measures are becoming more pronounced. The most affected by this situation are children and future generations. These individuals, who leave their homelands, suffer from significant cultural disintegration and are often not accepted by the countries they migrate to. With rising nationalism, the harmful effects of this phenomenon are becoming increasingly evident.
Here, you can see the world’s first wall. This fascinating structure is located in Syria, our neighbor to the south, and dates back to 3000 BC. It was the first wall built to prevent violence between the eastern and western parts of the country. Interestingly, neither we nor the Syrians were aware of this until it was recently discovered by archaeologists. Running from northern to southern Syria, parts of this wall are eroded, but significant sections still remain intact. The second wall is the Great Wall of China. What comes next? There are over 11 walls worldwide. We are increasingly witnessing the erection of barriers to prevent migration and restrict human relations. We are living in a world where the number of such walls is growing.
As a result of migration movements between countries, recent data shows that a significant number of asylum applications—202,815 to be exact—were filed in Germany alone. There are migrants reaching Italy via Libya and others traveling via Turkey. Despite Spain's strict measures to prevent migration from Morocco, the majority of migrants still pass through Turkey. Europe is struggling to cope with this situation. This process is leading to changes in political leadership within European countries, the rise of extreme nationalism, and the emergence of a phenomenon we now refer to as "new fascism" within the global order.
Another crucial issue to highlight here is the birth rate. Our President also emphasized this in relation to demographic structures. According to new data from Anadolu Agency, Turkey’s birth rate is 1.51. This rate is lower than that of 16 out of 27 European countries. A similar trend is observed worldwide. Turkey has significantly lost its advantage of a young population. In fact, the opposite is occurring—the country is aging. According to their own calculations, by 2150, there will be no pure Japanese people left in the world.
In Israel, the fertility rate among secular Zionists, who share power with religious Zionists, is as low as 1.2. However, among Palestinian Arabs (who are Israeli citizens), the rate is 4, while for religious Zionists, it is 6. There is a growing fear that in the 2040 elections, religious Zionists and Palestinian Arabs will take control of the government. This is a scenario that neither the United States nor Zionist leaders want. The underlying reasons for the current large-scale violence against Arabs go beyond control over oil and land—demographic factors must also be carefully considered.
Alain Link has an important book titled The New Middle Ages. I have recently reread it in the context of today’s conditions. It was written in the 1990s and translated into Turkish. The book begins with two key words: decay or collapse. In my opinion, these words best define the current state of the world. Humanity is now facing a future where individuals are becoming isolated, disconnected from their identities and environments, and struggling with uncertainty. As the fundamental role of the state-protecting individuals through the rule of law-becomes increasingly dysfunctional, people are becoming lonelier and more individualized. This unfolding situation is described as a collapse.
Gramsci is one of the most significant figures in political science, frequently referenced by columnists and academics alike. His famous statement is particularly relevant today: The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born. Now is the time of monsters. We are indeed surrounded by many "monsters" from global climate change to artificial intelligence. Erhun Yıldızoğlu has also written a remarkable book titled The History of Today, which summarizes the present era by drawing from Gramsci’s ideas.
A new capitalism or a new world that will replace capitalism, a new fascism. The redistribution process shaped by the competition of great powers for resources and markets. What else is this called? The new imperialist era. It is referred to as new fascism or the new Middle Ages. There is a climate crisis created by capitalism; it is clear that it has seriously disrupted social balances and accelerated migration movements. Here, new monsters, new technologies, fake news, war robots, big data... In fact, what Gramsci referred to as the time of monsters is exactly these monsters. He was an important figure who pointed this out years ago. The new world will fight against these monsters, and the development process of the new world will be shaped by those who control these monsters. As seen in this cartoon, we continue to live in a process where everyone's weapon is both on their own head and on the head of the other. That is why we are drifting towards a world with both monsters and autocratic leaders.
In fact, the problem is the pains of an unfinished war from World War I and the redrawing of borders. We all know what kind of problems the borders drawn with a ruler by the Sykes-Picot Agreement in our south still cause today. I would like to touch on an interesting topic here. There is the famous Mont Pelerin Society, established in 1947. It was first brought to light by our commander Talat Turhan, who had a military background, and he also wrote about it in his book. This is a society that should not be overlooked. This society includes a group of 40 economists led by the famous Milton Friedman. Talat Turhan stated that the book Mont Pelerin: The Brain of Global Capital by Mehmet Eymen identified this society as the most responsible for neoliberalism today. Moreover, when they initiated the process we call neoliberalism in 1973, they laid the foundations for the new Middle Ages. Interestingly, eight members of this society have won the Nobel Prize. Internationally, they are referred to as the "global mafia."
Why the new Middle Ages? The most important thing here is that we are currently under a quasi-feudal rule with autocratic leaders. It is like the relationship between lords and serfs. We are experiencing a period where loyalty is prioritized, and meritocracy has no place. This is the case in America, France, Germany—everywhere. The same applies to Turkey. Lawlessness is at the forefront. National and international law are unfortunately disregarded. We can clearly see how international law has been trampled upon. There is a mafia system. Right now, the most significant threat to the world and the future is not terrorist organizations, but rather the betting syndicates and organized crime groups that collaborate with them, as our President stated. In Turkey, the number of crime operations conducted daily is now beyond counting. There are so many operations that we have lost track of their names. There is no reason, no hope for the future; the most important thing is rule by fear. Gramsci also wrote about this in his book. Fear isolates people. An isolated person fears mass actions. In fact, this is largely what those in power want.
In reality, what America fears is neither China nor Russia; its real fear is Kim Jong-un, who is currently in the spotlight due to his nuclear weapons and the 10,000-troop support he has provided to Russia. Last night, for the first time, there was an upheaval in Ukraine after U.S.-provided long-range missiles landed near Moscow in the Kursk region. In response, Russia launched intense attacks on Ukraine's most critical facilities, including Kyiv, throughout the night. This morning, the United Kingdom also announced that it had lifted the ban on the use of landmines and permitted their use in Ukraine. We can see that the war is reaching a new dimension.
As for the term "new global imperialism," I want to highlight something: the biggest target of the so-called global mafia we just mentioned is national armies. Armies around the world are becoming increasingly professionalized. Today, the U.S. is seriously considering returning to a national army structure, and military sociologists are conducting special studies on this. Suicide rates in the U.S. military have reached alarming levels. About a month and a half ago in Iraq, a 20-man team committed mass suicide, and they have been unable to curb this issue. Those who complete their military service and return often end up getting involved in drugs or working with the mafia and organized crime groups. It is said that these individuals play a significant role in the rise of crime organizations in the U.S. and that they have distanced themselves from the concepts of nation and homeland. In reality, professional soldiering is a medieval system. All serfs and lords in the Middle Ages hired mercenaries for their protection. I exclude our soldiers from this; we still see that the majority of Turkey’s patriotic sons serve within the framework of their constitutional rights.
There is also an interesting statistic, which comes from Eurostat: over the past 30 years, the number of police forces worldwide has tripled. This is an important indicator that we are moving towards a rule of fear.
There are three major actors in the global hegemony race: the temple knights of Hayek and Friedman, the Vatican and Opus Dei, and the Evangelicals, who still dominate power. The arms industry, energy, finance, and the pharmaceutical industry are also crucial. Our President specifically mentioned the pharmaceutical issue. The U.S., the United Kingdom, and Israel... We often talk about these three, but we must not overlook China. China has also secured its place as a significant player in the established order. As for Russia, I always say this: Russia's next move will not be in the Mediterranean or Africa—though it will maintain relations in these regions—but in the Arctic. If a Third World War breaks out, it will not be in the South China Sea or the Middle East; it will be in the Arctic. The real power struggle will be over the natural gas and rare elements in the melting ice fields. The next stage will be in space. We see that China is the most prepared for this.
There was also an interesting tension between Azerbaijan and France in 2024, as you know. New Caledonia... What does Azerbaijan have to do with France? However, the referendum in New Caledonia and France’s decision to abandon democratic freedoms in favor of a repressive process have brought an interesting relationship to the forefront. We should not forget these things; even the island nations are now rebelling against their oppressors.
Hungary is openly reconsidering its NATO role. They are openly debating and discussing, saying, "There is no logical reason for us to remain in NATO anymore." Orban, when visiting Trump at his home in Florida, said, "If you get elected, I will not give a single cent to Ukraine." That is the kind of Orban we are dealing with. The European Union, in response to Hungarian Prime Minister Orban's meeting with Putin, took the presidency-related meetings that Hungary was supposed to host and relocated them elsewhere.
The European Union announced, "We will admit Georgia and Moldova into the European Union." So, what happened next in Georgia? When the ruling party attempted to pass a law requiring transparency about where the funds provided by Soros’ civil society organizations were being allocated, the European Union opposed it, calling it a "Russian law." A series of demonstrations took place in Georgia, an election was held, and the ruling party won again. What did the European Union announce? They declared that Georgia’s accession process to the European Union was completely frozen. This situation can be explained as: "You are either against Russia or with us. If you are on the other side, you have no right to continue living."
One of the notable developments was the Russia-Iran energy agreement signed on January 18, 2024. Its content is highly significant. This agreement will have effects in the Caucasus region and the Persian Gulf in the future. It is a long-term agreement because the Caspian axis possesses substantial underground resources. I believe that in the coming days, the North-South corridor between Russia and Iran will bring this issue further into focus.
Actually, an important development occurred in Armenia three days ago: Pashinyan shaved his beard. He appeared like this for the first time, and shortly after, he dismissed five high-ranking officials, including two ministers. Armenia is rife with corruption. As our President has stated, corruption and bribery have spread to an incredible extent worldwide. This has long been a cause of social protests in Armenia, and the five individuals at the center of these reactions have been removed from office.
Regarding the Turkey-Syria issue, I will say only one thing: The areas controlled by Turkey are now under Turkey’s control and are its territories. Syria will never be an Arab Republic. As the PKK states, steps towards the Syrian Democratic Republic are being taken rapidly. Syria has de facto been divided into four parts: the areas east of the Euphrates under Turkey’s control, the region between Damascus and northern Aleppo under Assad’s control, and the Druze region. In fact, Assad does not want to allocate a place for the Druze, but due to pressure from Israel and the United States, the Druze will also be included in this structure. Assad does not care about the Golan Heights. Within this structure, the Golan Heights, which is de facto under Israeli occupation, will be handed over to Israel. This will also lay the groundwork for Israel’s long-sought "David Corridor."
Looking at other developments, the importance of fossil fuels will increase. When asked about global warming, Trump responded with "drilling." He stated that he would be flexible regarding fossil fuels and global warming. As you know, when Trump was in office, he withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement. His re-entry would be subject to certain conditions. He said, "Look at China," and declared that he would impose high taxes on electric vehicles to block their entry.
There is an extreme demand for green minerals such as copper, cobalt, nickel, and lithium. Those who control these minerals in Africa will come to the forefront, just like rare earth elements. Deep-sea mining is becoming increasingly important worldwide. Rare earth elements are no longer found here; they are being sought in deep-sea mining and the oceans.
According to data, the amount spent on armament/defense in 2023 was $2.44 trillion. This year, it is estimated that this figure could approach approximately $3.5 trillion. Considering the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War, the Israel-Hamas conflict, and the resulting heightened security concerns leading to constant militarization especially in Germany and other European countries this figure has been recorded as the highest increase in the last 60 years.
95% of internet data passes under the ocean. The data speed is terabits per second. The majority of this belongs to the United States, Russia, and China. These cables are built to last for 25 years, and if they are cut, only Elon Musk's Starlink satellites could come into play. However, China also has alternatives for this. What is China’s biggest advantage right now? China has actually made a statement: It claimed that with its developed algorithms, it could break any military encryption, which has, of course, caused serious concern in the United States. Previously, the Russians had accessed nuclear records and critical corporate data. This is a significant issue. If the Chinese have truly achieved this, it is an extraordinary success. Secondly, China is the only country capable of intercepting the internet data passing under the ocean. This will play a crucial role in future submarine cable wars and future warfare.
The United States has released a new document outlining its vision for 2030. Comprehensive studies are being conducted on the security impacts of global climate change. The U.S. Navy, in particular, has significant research on this topic.
As you know, Turkey’s Panama-flagged ship was attacked by the Houthis in the Aden region. This is certainly not the last attack. These attacks have led to shipping traffic diverting from the Red Sea to the Cape of Good Hope. According to current data, the use of the Suez Canal by LPG tankers has decreased by 85%. This, of course, increases costs. It is clear that this is an attempt to prevent China from accessing the Mediterranean.
The protection of strategic and critical infrastructure facilities has come to the forefront in Turkey following the recent TUSAŞ attack, and this issue is becoming increasingly important. The United States has established a separate structure for this matter, forming a dedicated department under the Homeland Security Agency for critical infrastructure facilities. The European Union has also created a separate structure. Turkey has a "Critical Facilities and Infrastructure Action Plan Strategy Document," issued in 2013. I hope this document will be swiftly implemented, particularly for the defense industry facilities.
Cyberattacks are not just carried out by hackers. In 2020, Iran's nuclear facilities were targeted in a cyberattack. Again, in February 2024, another cyberattack damaged natural gas pipelines.
Looking at trends, it is predicted that the use of perovskite solar cells will increase. The construction of energy archipelagos is beginning. Denmark was the first to undertake this with the "Princess Elisabeth Island" project.
I have tried to provide a brief overview of the world. Of course, there is much more to discuss. I thank you for your patience and for attending the 10th Istanbul Security Conference.
Best regards.
(November 21, 2024 Wish More Istanbul Hotel 10th Istanbul Security Conference and Co - Events Opening Session Transcript)
Reflecting on the speech I delivered last year, I believe it is essential to acknowledge certain anniversaries that coincide with this conference, which takes place in November. One of these is the 41st anniversary of the establishment of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, celebrated on November 15. Regarding the TRNC, of which we are proud, I would like to once again emphasize the necessity of taking concrete steps toward recognition or a different framework.
Another significant anniversary is the 107th year of the infamous Balfour Declaration, which forms the basis of the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict. It is crucial not to forget this declaration, which lies at the heart of the Palestinian issue. Similarly, the fall of the Berlin Wall, which symbolized the division between East and West, also took place in November. However, despite the passage of 65 years, it is unfortunate to see that humanity has learned nothing from history.
In 2024, for the first time in history, the world’s population surpassed 8 billion. Additionally, for the first time, India's population has exceeded that of China. Both countries currently have a population of 1.4 billion, but projections indicate that India will continue to grow exponentially, surpassing China by a significant margin. The question arises: Could India become the new China? When we analyze India’s large-scale vocational and technical education collaborations with Germany, it becomes evident that the United States is not merely positioning India as an alternative to China but is striving to elevate it to a much different status.
I would like to address the topics expressed by the Honorable President, particularly regarding techno-politics. Techno-politics has now started to transform into policy documents. The United States was the first to introduce this concept by adopting the Artificial Intelligence Bill of Rights. Subsequently, a series of serious laws regarding the use of artificial intelligence began to emerge, and ultimately, in March 2024, the European Union became the first in the world to pass the Artificial Intelligence Act. We are now experiencing a process in which the impact of technological advancements on security policies and other matters is clearly evident, and technology itself is increasingly being defined by laws.
Another concept is a new definition introduced to geopolitics. Geopolitics traditionally outlines the relationship between geography and politics, but now, due to technological advancements and artificial intelligence, a new debate has emerged: Is artificial intelligence a new form of geopolitics, or is it an AI-driven political revolution? I believe these two questions are profound enough to be the subject of academic research, and I wanted to share this with you.
Yes, I titled my presentation "The New Middle Ages." This is not actually a new concept. If you look far north, to Siberia, you can see the melting of ice and permafrost. What does this imply? In the near future, a new battleground may emerge regarding rare elements. Additionally, desertification and drought are increasing and spreading. We are also witnessing a rise in hurricanes and similar natural disasters. Many river basins, including the Nile, are experiencing a gradual decline. There is significant regression in agriculture and other industrial facilities in these areas. The list goes on—wildfires resulting from the melting glaciers in Siberia could not be extinguished by Russia for about a month, and methane gases released from beneath the thawing ground have been found to surpass the total methane emissions released into the atmosphere in one and a half to two years. I want to emphasize that this is the global process we are witnessing.
Looking at the global refugee map, consider Turkey's geographical position. According to new records from the United Nations, approximately 10.5 million people worldwide have left their home countries. About 3.5 million of these refugees are in the Middle East, a region that neighbors Turkey. This situation is becoming one of the most critical elements of future security issues. We are witnessing a massive increase in migration movements across Europe. In response, European border security measures are becoming more pronounced. The most affected by this situation are children and future generations. These individuals, who leave their homelands, suffer from significant cultural disintegration and are often not accepted by the countries they migrate to. With rising nationalism, the harmful effects of this phenomenon are becoming increasingly evident.
Here, you can see the world’s first wall. This fascinating structure is located in Syria, our neighbor to the south, and dates back to 3000 BC. It was the first wall built to prevent violence between the eastern and western parts of the country. Interestingly, neither we nor the Syrians were aware of this until it was recently discovered by archaeologists. Running from northern to southern Syria, parts of this wall are eroded, but significant sections still remain intact. The second wall is the Great Wall of China. What comes next? There are over 11 walls worldwide. We are increasingly witnessing the erection of barriers to prevent migration and restrict human relations. We are living in a world where the number of such walls is growing.
As a result of migration movements between countries, recent data shows that a significant number of asylum applications—202,815 to be exact—were filed in Germany alone. There are migrants reaching Italy via Libya and others traveling via Turkey. Despite Spain's strict measures to prevent migration from Morocco, the majority of migrants still pass through Turkey. Europe is struggling to cope with this situation. This process is leading to changes in political leadership within European countries, the rise of extreme nationalism, and the emergence of a phenomenon we now refer to as "new fascism" within the global order.
Another crucial issue to highlight here is the birth rate. Our President also emphasized this in relation to demographic structures. According to new data from Anadolu Agency, Turkey’s birth rate is 1.51. This rate is lower than that of 16 out of 27 European countries. A similar trend is observed worldwide. Turkey has significantly lost its advantage of a young population. In fact, the opposite is occurring—the country is aging. According to their own calculations, by 2150, there will be no pure Japanese people left in the world.
In Israel, the fertility rate among secular Zionists, who share power with religious Zionists, is as low as 1.2. However, among Palestinian Arabs (who are Israeli citizens), the rate is 4, while for religious Zionists, it is 6. There is a growing fear that in the 2040 elections, religious Zionists and Palestinian Arabs will take control of the government. This is a scenario that neither the United States nor Zionist leaders want. The underlying reasons for the current large-scale violence against Arabs go beyond control over oil and land—demographic factors must also be carefully considered.
Alain Link has an important book titled The New Middle Ages. I have recently reread it in the context of today’s conditions. It was written in the 1990s and translated into Turkish. The book begins with two key words: decay or collapse. In my opinion, these words best define the current state of the world. Humanity is now facing a future where individuals are becoming isolated, disconnected from their identities and environments, and struggling with uncertainty. As the fundamental role of the state-protecting individuals through the rule of law-becomes increasingly dysfunctional, people are becoming lonelier and more individualized. This unfolding situation is described as a collapse.
Gramsci is one of the most significant figures in political science, frequently referenced by columnists and academics alike. His famous statement is particularly relevant today: The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born. Now is the time of monsters. We are indeed surrounded by many "monsters" from global climate change to artificial intelligence. Erhun Yıldızoğlu has also written a remarkable book titled The History of Today, which summarizes the present era by drawing from Gramsci’s ideas.
A new capitalism or a new world that will replace capitalism, a new fascism. The redistribution process shaped by the competition of great powers for resources and markets. What else is this called? The new imperialist era. It is referred to as new fascism or the new Middle Ages. There is a climate crisis created by capitalism; it is clear that it has seriously disrupted social balances and accelerated migration movements. Here, new monsters, new technologies, fake news, war robots, big data... In fact, what Gramsci referred to as the time of monsters is exactly these monsters. He was an important figure who pointed this out years ago. The new world will fight against these monsters, and the development process of the new world will be shaped by those who control these monsters. As seen in this cartoon, we continue to live in a process where everyone's weapon is both on their own head and on the head of the other. That is why we are drifting towards a world with both monsters and autocratic leaders.
In fact, the problem is the pains of an unfinished war from World War I and the redrawing of borders. We all know what kind of problems the borders drawn with a ruler by the Sykes-Picot Agreement in our south still cause today. I would like to touch on an interesting topic here. There is the famous Mont Pelerin Society, established in 1947. It was first brought to light by our commander Talat Turhan, who had a military background, and he also wrote about it in his book. This is a society that should not be overlooked. This society includes a group of 40 economists led by the famous Milton Friedman. Talat Turhan stated that the book Mont Pelerin: The Brain of Global Capital by Mehmet Eymen identified this society as the most responsible for neoliberalism today. Moreover, when they initiated the process we call neoliberalism in 1973, they laid the foundations for the new Middle Ages. Interestingly, eight members of this society have won the Nobel Prize. Internationally, they are referred to as the "global mafia."
Why the new Middle Ages? The most important thing here is that we are currently under a quasi-feudal rule with autocratic leaders. It is like the relationship between lords and serfs. We are experiencing a period where loyalty is prioritized, and meritocracy has no place. This is the case in America, France, Germany—everywhere. The same applies to Turkey. Lawlessness is at the forefront. National and international law are unfortunately disregarded. We can clearly see how international law has been trampled upon. There is a mafia system. Right now, the most significant threat to the world and the future is not terrorist organizations, but rather the betting syndicates and organized crime groups that collaborate with them, as our President stated. In Turkey, the number of crime operations conducted daily is now beyond counting. There are so many operations that we have lost track of their names. There is no reason, no hope for the future; the most important thing is rule by fear. Gramsci also wrote about this in his book. Fear isolates people. An isolated person fears mass actions. In fact, this is largely what those in power want.
In reality, what America fears is neither China nor Russia; its real fear is Kim Jong-un, who is currently in the spotlight due to his nuclear weapons and the 10,000-troop support he has provided to Russia. Last night, for the first time, there was an upheaval in Ukraine after U.S.-provided long-range missiles landed near Moscow in the Kursk region. In response, Russia launched intense attacks on Ukraine's most critical facilities, including Kyiv, throughout the night. This morning, the United Kingdom also announced that it had lifted the ban on the use of landmines and permitted their use in Ukraine. We can see that the war is reaching a new dimension.
As for the term "new global imperialism," I want to highlight something: the biggest target of the so-called global mafia we just mentioned is national armies. Armies around the world are becoming increasingly professionalized. Today, the U.S. is seriously considering returning to a national army structure, and military sociologists are conducting special studies on this. Suicide rates in the U.S. military have reached alarming levels. About a month and a half ago in Iraq, a 20-man team committed mass suicide, and they have been unable to curb this issue. Those who complete their military service and return often end up getting involved in drugs or working with the mafia and organized crime groups. It is said that these individuals play a significant role in the rise of crime organizations in the U.S. and that they have distanced themselves from the concepts of nation and homeland. In reality, professional soldiering is a medieval system. All serfs and lords in the Middle Ages hired mercenaries for their protection. I exclude our soldiers from this; we still see that the majority of Turkey’s patriotic sons serve within the framework of their constitutional rights.
There is also an interesting statistic, which comes from Eurostat: over the past 30 years, the number of police forces worldwide has tripled. This is an important indicator that we are moving towards a rule of fear.
There are three major actors in the global hegemony race: the temple knights of Hayek and Friedman, the Vatican and Opus Dei, and the Evangelicals, who still dominate power. The arms industry, energy, finance, and the pharmaceutical industry are also crucial. Our President specifically mentioned the pharmaceutical issue. The U.S., the United Kingdom, and Israel... We often talk about these three, but we must not overlook China. China has also secured its place as a significant player in the established order. As for Russia, I always say this: Russia's next move will not be in the Mediterranean or Africa—though it will maintain relations in these regions—but in the Arctic. If a Third World War breaks out, it will not be in the South China Sea or the Middle East; it will be in the Arctic. The real power struggle will be over the natural gas and rare elements in the melting ice fields. The next stage will be in space. We see that China is the most prepared for this.
There was also an interesting tension between Azerbaijan and France in 2024, as you know. New Caledonia... What does Azerbaijan have to do with France? However, the referendum in New Caledonia and France’s decision to abandon democratic freedoms in favor of a repressive process have brought an interesting relationship to the forefront. We should not forget these things; even the island nations are now rebelling against their oppressors.
Hungary is openly reconsidering its NATO role. They are openly debating and discussing, saying, "There is no logical reason for us to remain in NATO anymore." Orban, when visiting Trump at his home in Florida, said, "If you get elected, I will not give a single cent to Ukraine." That is the kind of Orban we are dealing with. The European Union, in response to Hungarian Prime Minister Orban's meeting with Putin, took the presidency-related meetings that Hungary was supposed to host and relocated them elsewhere.
The European Union announced, "We will admit Georgia and Moldova into the European Union." So, what happened next in Georgia? When the ruling party attempted to pass a law requiring transparency about where the funds provided by Soros’ civil society organizations were being allocated, the European Union opposed it, calling it a "Russian law." A series of demonstrations took place in Georgia, an election was held, and the ruling party won again. What did the European Union announce? They declared that Georgia’s accession process to the European Union was completely frozen. This situation can be explained as: "You are either against Russia or with us. If you are on the other side, you have no right to continue living."
One of the notable developments was the Russia-Iran energy agreement signed on January 18, 2024. Its content is highly significant. This agreement will have effects in the Caucasus region and the Persian Gulf in the future. It is a long-term agreement because the Caspian axis possesses substantial underground resources. I believe that in the coming days, the North-South corridor between Russia and Iran will bring this issue further into focus.
Actually, an important development occurred in Armenia three days ago: Pashinyan shaved his beard. He appeared like this for the first time, and shortly after, he dismissed five high-ranking officials, including two ministers. Armenia is rife with corruption. As our President has stated, corruption and bribery have spread to an incredible extent worldwide. This has long been a cause of social protests in Armenia, and the five individuals at the center of these reactions have been removed from office.
Regarding the Turkey-Syria issue, I will say only one thing: The areas controlled by Turkey are now under Turkey’s control and are its territories. Syria will never be an Arab Republic. As the PKK states, steps towards the Syrian Democratic Republic are being taken rapidly. Syria has de facto been divided into four parts: the areas east of the Euphrates under Turkey’s control, the region between Damascus and northern Aleppo under Assad’s control, and the Druze region. In fact, Assad does not want to allocate a place for the Druze, but due to pressure from Israel and the United States, the Druze will also be included in this structure. Assad does not care about the Golan Heights. Within this structure, the Golan Heights, which is de facto under Israeli occupation, will be handed over to Israel. This will also lay the groundwork for Israel’s long-sought "David Corridor."
Looking at other developments, the importance of fossil fuels will increase. When asked about global warming, Trump responded with "drilling." He stated that he would be flexible regarding fossil fuels and global warming. As you know, when Trump was in office, he withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement. His re-entry would be subject to certain conditions. He said, "Look at China," and declared that he would impose high taxes on electric vehicles to block their entry.
There is an extreme demand for green minerals such as copper, cobalt, nickel, and lithium. Those who control these minerals in Africa will come to the forefront, just like rare earth elements. Deep-sea mining is becoming increasingly important worldwide. Rare earth elements are no longer found here; they are being sought in deep-sea mining and the oceans.
According to data, the amount spent on armament/defense in 2023 was $2.44 trillion. This year, it is estimated that this figure could approach approximately $3.5 trillion. Considering the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War, the Israel-Hamas conflict, and the resulting heightened security concerns leading to constant militarization especially in Germany and other European countries this figure has been recorded as the highest increase in the last 60 years.
95% of internet data passes under the ocean. The data speed is terabits per second. The majority of this belongs to the United States, Russia, and China. These cables are built to last for 25 years, and if they are cut, only Elon Musk's Starlink satellites could come into play. However, China also has alternatives for this. What is China’s biggest advantage right now? China has actually made a statement: It claimed that with its developed algorithms, it could break any military encryption, which has, of course, caused serious concern in the United States. Previously, the Russians had accessed nuclear records and critical corporate data. This is a significant issue. If the Chinese have truly achieved this, it is an extraordinary success. Secondly, China is the only country capable of intercepting the internet data passing under the ocean. This will play a crucial role in future submarine cable wars and future warfare.
The United States has released a new document outlining its vision for 2030. Comprehensive studies are being conducted on the security impacts of global climate change. The U.S. Navy, in particular, has significant research on this topic.
As you know, Turkey’s Panama-flagged ship was attacked by the Houthis in the Aden region. This is certainly not the last attack. These attacks have led to shipping traffic diverting from the Red Sea to the Cape of Good Hope. According to current data, the use of the Suez Canal by LPG tankers has decreased by 85%. This, of course, increases costs. It is clear that this is an attempt to prevent China from accessing the Mediterranean.
The protection of strategic and critical infrastructure facilities has come to the forefront in Turkey following the recent TUSAŞ attack, and this issue is becoming increasingly important. The United States has established a separate structure for this matter, forming a dedicated department under the Homeland Security Agency for critical infrastructure facilities. The European Union has also created a separate structure. Turkey has a "Critical Facilities and Infrastructure Action Plan Strategy Document," issued in 2013. I hope this document will be swiftly implemented, particularly for the defense industry facilities.
Cyberattacks are not just carried out by hackers. In 2020, Iran's nuclear facilities were targeted in a cyberattack. Again, in February 2024, another cyberattack damaged natural gas pipelines.
Looking at trends, it is predicted that the use of perovskite solar cells will increase. The construction of energy archipelagos is beginning. Denmark was the first to undertake this with the "Princess Elisabeth Island" project.
I have tried to provide a brief overview of the world. Of course, there is much more to discuss. I thank you for your patience and for attending the 10th Istanbul Security Conference.
Best regards.
(November 21, 2024 Wish More Istanbul Hotel 10th Istanbul Security Conference and Co - Events Opening Session Transcript)
